The iPod of the (Near) Future
In my last post, I talked about the problems with the current incarnation of the iPod. Today, I'm going to talk about the iPod of the future. What will a such a device be like?
Well, it will be much closer to Sansa's homely Sansa Connect than the iPod that comes with the iPhone. The Sansa Connect uses Wifi to connect to the Yahoo! Unlimited subscription music service. There is a recommendation service and some limited social interaction via recommendations from friends also on Yahoo's music service.
Though it's a an early attempt, it hints at the device of the future: the beauty and interface design of the iPod combined with the connectivity of the Sansa Connect and the social interaction and recommendation engine of services like Last.fm.
Frustratingly, the iPhone -- which has network access through both Wifi and AT&T's Edge network -- is amazingly close to achieving the what the Sansa device fails to. The iPod interface could have two modes, connected and disconnected (subway/airplane). In connected mode, the iTunes catalog can be browsed and listened to in it’s entirety. In disconnected mode, you can listen to a cache of songs that you've listened to recently, favorites, and recommended songs (proactively downloaded for you as Tivo does with TV shows). Basically, the networked iPod would turn itself into a standalone iPod when no connection was present.
The largest factor in delaying this inevitable future is not a technical or interface challenge but a business one. The current iTunes model been responsible for billions of dollars of Apple revenue. An "iTunes Unlimited" subscription model would effectively cannibalize the song buying model and potentially alienate customers who have spent money to "own" songs purchased from the iTunes music store.
What to do with all that music people have bought? When “iTunes Unlimited” launches, offer people a discount on their subscriptions for all or part of what they’ve spent to own songs on iTunes. So, for example, a person who has spent $100 at the iTunes music store would receive 3 months free of iTunes unlimited. Perhaps the discount could be greater if it proved to be a sufficient incentive to get people to buy a new high-margin device.
So, that is, as best I can imagine it, the near-term future of the iPod and portable music devices. Though none of it is technically impossible today, practical considerations are likely to, unfortunately, push off the arrival of "iTunes Unlimited" on the networked iPod for another 2 to 4 years.